Washington Is Dismissing China’s Belt and Road. That’s a Huge Strategic Mistake.

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It seeks to expand its political influence vis-à-vis other great powers through its mediation of disputes across the region, particularly the Syrian war – which it has affected through its veto on the United Nations Security Council – and the disagreements that led to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. In many ways, the relationship between China and MENA countries amounts to an attempt to hedge their bets against US predominance. Through strategic assertiveness and policy flexibility, Beijing wants to demonstrate to the Chinese people that, diplomatically, China is no longer a yes man but a respected world power – that it can maintain a strategic equilibrium with Europe, Russia, and the United States in the MENA and world arenas.

Neither Germany, France or the United Kingdom has joined BRI, but all three joined the multilateral Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in 2015 over the Obama administration’s objections. Germany’s Trade and Investment Association and chambers of commerce have formulated strategies to compete for more BRI business, with Siemens signing dozens of agreements for projects with Chinese partners.

Beijing has kept to a very cautious line following the recent incidents, showing that it is not ready yet to step in significantly. However, a few announcements have marked a departure from this traditional rhetoric. The Chinese ambassador to the United Arab Emirates announced in August 2019 that China might participate in maritime security operations in the strait.

He holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Maryland, College Park. Michele Ruta is Lead Economist in the Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment Global Practice of the World Bank Group, where he leads the work program on regional integration. He had previous appointments at the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization and the European University Institute. Michele has published in refereed journals such as the Journal of International Economics and contributed to many policy reports, including the World Trade Report of the WTO and the World Development Report of the World Bank, on international and regional integration issues.

Chunlin Zhang studied economics in Nankai University and Peking University in China and holds a Ph.D. in economics from the China Academy of Social Sciences. 3. Complementary policy reforms can maximize the positive effects of BRI transport projects and ensure that the gains are widely shared. For some countries, reforms are precondition to having net gains from BRI transport projects.

21st Century Maritime Silk RoadEdit

The US has deployed tens of thousands of troops to the region and maintained bases in every GCC country except Saudi Arabia, as well as in Afghanistan, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, and Syria. From the perspective of Gulf Arab states, the security umbrella provided by the US military will, despite the increasing uncertainty http://pj.thepakistanpublications.com/2019/10/01/kurs-obmena-shvejcarskogo-franka/ in US-GCC relations, remain crucial for maintaining peace and stability within the Gulf and in defending their wider regional interests for years to come. Nonetheless, military cooperation between China and Gulf countries is still in its infancy. Beijing has a limited capacity to compete with Western arms suppliers.

Simply put, China is trying to buy friendship and political influence by investing massive amounts of money on infrastructure in countries along the ‘One Belt, One Road’. http://www.lnhenterprise.com/bhp-billiton-vdvoe-sokratit-dobychu-slancevoj/ The projects receive financial support from the Silk Road Fund and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank while they are technically coordinated by the B&R Summit Forum.

Chinese contractors nowoutperform their South Korean counterparts in the Gulf. Analysis of MEED Projects data shows that Chinese firms have conducted work worth $38 billion there since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013. This is almost double the amount they carried out during 2007-2012. Last year, the region was the second-largest recipient of investment through Chinese construction projects worldwide.

By the time of the 2008 financial crisis, Asians were already trading more with each other than with the rest of the world, insulating them considerably from the demand shock. China’s Finance Minister Liu Kun said on Saturday that he hopes the AIIB will link its strategy with the development blueprints of its members, the BRI and the Connecting Europe and Asia Strategy of the European Union. Besides signing agreements and engaging in state-to-state negotiations, Chinese officials have been working with their counterparts in the UAE to set in place the institutional and financial regulatory frameworks intended to facilitate and expand cross-regional activities related to implementation of the BRI in the Gulf.[9] In 2016, China and Saudi Arabia established a high-level joint committee, one of whose six sub-committees was put in charge of the BRI.[10] Importantly, China has been working to resume negotiations aimed at concluding a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).[11] Although many of these frameworks have yet to be finalized, all are intended to mitigate the political risks and uncertainties surrounding the implementation of the BRI. When countries combine faster trade times gained through BRI projects with improvements in other areas, such as border efficiency, tariff reductions, deeper trade agreements and better market access, trade increases even further. Trading times are particularly important for time sensitive products and for products that rely on time sensitive inputs in production processes.

  • However, many policymakers have little knowledge of China’s position and objectives in the Middle East, or of the ways in which these factors could affect regional stability and political dynamics in the medium to long term.
  • This includes a $10 billion investment in an oil refinery and petrochemicals complex in the deep-water port in Gwadar, a Pakistani city on the coast of the Arabian Sea.
  • Given that China’s rise has led to intensifying geopolitical competition in Europe’s neighbourhood, European policymakers should begin to factor the country into their thinking about the Middle East.
  • There is a convergence of BRI projects in MENA, which sits at the crossroads of Africa, Asia, and Europe.
  • Yet, given that both states’ confidence in each other is building, how well and efficiently they will cooperate in the coming years remains to be seen.
  • All economic indicators show that China has not invested heavily in Iran – despite Tehran’s claims to the contrary – and that most Chinese military manufacturers are unwilling to provide technology transfers to Iranian companies (as has been the case with Pakistani firms).

General Electric, Honeywell International and Caterpillar all have decades of traction in Asia and are actively seeking roles as subcontractors to major Chinese firms involved in BRI-related contracts. American industry needs to promote its competitive advantages in logistics, energy services and other sectors across Asian markets—especially in South and Southeast Asia, where populations are younger and growth is accelerating. An important recent study by the Rand Corp. of the impact of new transportation routes on multiple pairs of Eurasian countries literally echoes President Xi Jinping in concluding that Belt and Road has been a “win-win.” Even more significant, another American institution, Citigroup, just published an analysis titled “China’s Belt & Road at Five” that documents how Belt and Road is graduating from a Sino-centric “one-to-many” model to a more multidirectional and inclusive “many-to-many” pattern.

And as Europe pursues free-trade agreements with Japan, the Association of Southeast Nations and India, BRI will give European countries better access to Asia’s other wealthy markets as well. Each year, eastbound trains to Asia are catching up to westbound trains from China in volume. The more http://kvlab.org/kriptovaljuta-kukoin-shares-kucoin-shares-kcs/ connected Europe becomes to Asia, the more it can compete commercially and diplomatically to dilute Chinese influence across the region. Since January 2016, the AIIB has provided $8.5 billion in loans to 45 projects in 18 member countries, many in renewable energy and green infrastructure.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Turkey’s Middle Corridor: “Win-Win Cooperation”?

How will the Belt and Road Initiative impact the time it takes to trade? In our recent work, we created a new database on transport projects linked to the BRI and used it to analyze the effects on trade. This research combines econometric estimations on the impact of trading times on exports and geographical information systems (GIS) analysis to compute the bilateral trade time between countries in the Belt and Road countries before and after the proposed interventions. Specifically, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a regional infrastructure investment program spanning over 100 countries, has been touted as a boon for the Islamic banking sector. Such financing complies with Sharia principles, meaning it adheres to the Islamic laws that prohibit earning interest on loans and bar funding activities involving alcohol, pork, pornography or gambling.

Given that China’s rise has led to intensifying geopolitical competition in Europe’s neighbourhood, European policymakers should begin to factor the country into their thinking about the Middle East. This series of essays addresses how they can do so by bringing together Chinese, Middle Eastern, and Western perspectives on China’s evolving role in the region.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Its Impact on the Middle East and North Africa

There is huge potential for China’s BRI renewable energy cooperation. China has formed an international development cooperation model for renewable energy, which consists mainly of overseas EPCs, opening production facilities overseas, overseas mergers and acquisitions, and overseas research and development. This cooperation has been focused on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor, the China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor, the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor, the New Eurasian Land Bridge, the China-Russia-Mongolia Economic Corridor, and China-Africa Cooperation.

For example, in 2013, Chinese navy vessels escorted UN ships carrying chemical weapons out of Syria for destruction in Cyprus. China has often deployed military forces to support the evacuation of Chinese citizens from MENA countries such as Lebanon in 2006, Libya in 2011, and Yemen in 2015. In the new era, China – as a rising power – has a wide range of interests in the region. The most important of these is its interest in maintaining predictable great power relations, to enhance its political influence. China favours multipolarity rather than unipolarity in MENA.

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